Bitcoin reached the psychologically important 80,000 level for the first time since January, driven by record highs in US stock indices, improved global risk appetite and hopes that the so-called Clarity Act is closer to congressional approval. Crypto exchange Coinbase reported a framework agreement with banks on custody fees for digital assets. Despite several restrictions, crypto firms now have a path to offer custody — a move that could boost interest in stablecoins and help BTC/USD extend its rally.

A necessary condition, however, is breaching the 80,000 ceiling. Heavy demand from institutional and retail investors for derivatives with strikes near that level has forced intermediaries — dealers — to hedge on the derivatives exchange Deribit. Every time the price approaches the psychologically important mark, automatic selling is triggered, producing sharp pullbacks.

Derivatives demand by strike reflects the fragility of the move. Geopolitics can also become a major obstacle for risky assets. The earnings season and discounted fundamental valuations of US stocks provided a reason to buy and allowed investors to look past the Middle East conflict. But nothing lasts forever. As more companies report Q1 results, markets will have to refocus on the US–Iran confrontation. The absence of a clear peace plan will put pressure on the S&P 500 and digital assets.

Despite a 20% BTC/USD rally since the onset of hostilities in the Middle East, the cryptocurrency remains highly sensitive to the performance of US stock indices and global risk appetite. On May 1, when the S&P 500 hit a new record, bitcoin?focused ETF-style funds attracted $630 million.

Fed funds rate expectations dynamic

Even if the digital asset clears 80,000, a rally above 100,000 looks doubtful. When bitcoin traded at historical peaks in October 2025, the Fed was easing monetary policy. Today, the futures market prices a 79% probability that the federal funds rate will remain at 3.75% through the end of 2026. Derivatives put the chance of a rate rise at 15% and a rate cut at 6%.

Thus, for the rally to continue and for a genuine uptrend to be restored, bitcoin needs to break the 80,000 ceiling — which currently seems unlikely. Still, never say never.

Technically, the daily chart formed a bar with a long upper wick that may be a pin bar. A common way to trade it is to place a pending sell order at the low, near 78,200.